Palm Oil Price Outlook for Fourth Week of January 2026

Crude palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives are expected to trade with an upward bias next week, supported by a recent improvement in palm oil export demand and expectations of slowing production growth in the coming weeks.

David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X Sdn Bhd, said strong export performance had helped support market sentiment, while supply growth is likely to moderate as seasonal factors begin to take effect.

He told Bernama: "Expectations of slowing production, together with improving export demand, are expected to provide fundamental support for prices in the near term."

He added: "However, volatility may persist due to movements in competing oil prices and global macroeconomic developments." He expects prices to move between 4,000 and 4,150 ringgit per tonne next week.

A contrasting view

By contrast, Jim Teh, senior palm oil trader at the Interband group of companies, believes crude palm oil futures will trade with a downward bias due to the country's high crude palm oil stocks, which analysts say will reach around three million tonnes.

Teh said: "We need to wait for the statistical report from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, which will be released next month, but there is still a long way to go before that."

Teh noted that actual demand would come from China, India, Pakistan, the Middle East and the European Union, along with small volumes from the United States.

He added: "So these lower prices will give real buyers a chance to purchase at this attractive price level, in a way that helps us draw down our high stocks." He also noted that, in addition to Malaysia, Indonesia holds ample supplies of crude palm oil, resulting in a surplus in palm oil stocks for both countries.

Weekly market performance

On a week-on-week basis, Friday to Friday:

• The January 2026 contract rose by 76 ringgit to 4,026 ringgit per tonne.
• The February 2026 contract gained 46 ringgit to reach 4,057 ringgit per tonne.
• The March 2026 contract climbed 36 ringgit to 4,072 ringgit per tonne.

The April 2026 contract also rose by 30 ringgit to 4,079 ringgit per tonne, the May 2026 contract firmed by 29 ringgit to 4,082 ringgit per tonne, and the June 2026 contract advanced 33 ringgit to settle at 4,077 ringgit per tonne.

Weekly trading volume jumped to 539,268 lots, compared with 395,181 lots the previous week, while open interest fell to 249,340 contracts from 260,191 contracts previously.

The new physical price for January crude palm oil in the southern region rose by 40 ringgit to 4,050 ringgit per tonne.

Source: Bernama