Lang
Chinese rapeseed oil prices are currently experiencing a downward trend, driven by an increase in global supply. This comes despite an earlier surge in spot prices in early July, which was attributed to a slowdown in deliveries and a scarcity of raw materials for processing plants. However, that initial price hike successfully stimulated supply, subsequently leading to price stabilization.
July typically marks an off-peak season for vegetable oil markets, meaning consumers generally avoid large-scale stockpiling, opting instead for immediate consumption needs. Furthermore, a substantial price disparity between rapeseed oil and soybean oil has acted as a significant deterrent, limiting the potential growth in demand for rapeseed oil. The upward trajectory of global rapeseed prices initially led to a rise in rapeseed oil values, prompting traders to liquidate their long positions, which in turn contributed to the current price weakening. Analysts anticipate that continued increases in rapeseed supply will exert further downward pressure, keeping rapeseed oil prices low in the near term.
Demand prices for Ukrainian rapeseed oil destined for China have reportedly fallen to $1,250 per metric ton on a CIF Shanghai basis. This decline is exacerbated by the growing volume of rapeseed oil shipments from the Russian Federation into the Chinese market.
The Russian Federation significantly ramped up its rapeseed oil exports to China in the 2025/26 marketing year, recording an 18% increase over the previous season to reach an unprecedented 1.4 million metric tons. China alone accounted for a substantial 90% of Russia's total rapeseed oil exports during this period. Experts project a record rapeseed production in Russia, expected to hit 8 million metric tons in 2026, a substantial rise from 4.2 million tons in 2024 and 5.5 million tons in 2025. This growth is primarily attributed to expanded sown areas and robust yields.
Conversely, according to estimates by the Ukroliyaprom and UKA associations, Ukraine also achieved record rapeseed oil exports in the 2025/26 marketing year, with volumes increasing 2.5 times from 210,000-221,000 metric tons to between 520,000 and 576,000 metric tons. However, Ukraine's share of supplies to China saw a sharp reduction, while its exports to the European Union soared to 92.8% of its total exports. Spain, Poland, Bulgaria, and the Netherlands emerged as the primary buyers. Looking ahead to the 2026/27 marketing year, Ukrainian oil exports could potentially reach 1 million metric tons, driven by an increase in domestic rapeseed processing due to ongoing restrictions on sea exports.
Source: Ukrainian Electronic Grain Exchange