Lang
Disruptions to Black Sea exports are constraining the flow of sunflower oil and related products to world markets, with port restrictions in Ukraine and an overall decline in regional cargo shipments setting the stage for firmer prices after an extended period of soft global supply.
Ukraine's role in the disruption is particularly consequential. The country has historically accounted for approximately 45% of global sunflower oil exports, but a combination of port restrictions and infrastructure damage has significantly curtailed its effective export capacity. Across the wider Black Sea region, dry bulk shipments declined markedly over the summer months, compounding the supply squeeze.
Russia is adding to the pressure on exporters. Moscow nearly doubled its sunflower oil export duty in September, and together with ongoing shipping disruptions, the measure is reducing the availability of competitively priced Russian offers on international markets and raising the risk profile for importers.
A larger European harvest is expected to provide only partial relief. EU sunflower production is forecast to rise by around 9% year-on-year to approximately 9.5 million tons, yet analysts say this is unlikely to fully offset the shortfall in Black Sea-origin supplies, particularly for Asian buyers that depend heavily on shipments from Ukraine and Russia.
Market participants expect sunflower oil prices to strengthen if Black Sea export disruptions persist. The impact is likely to become most pronounced for shipments in late Q4 2026 and Q1 2027, especially if port operations deteriorate further and ocean freight costs continue to climb.
Source: ukragroconsult.com