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India’s edible oil import landscape is undergoing a significant transformation for the October–December quarter as disruptions in the Black Sea region severely impact sunflower oil availability. According to projections by Oil World analysts, as reported by APK-Inform, sunflower oil arrivals during this period are expected to reach only 0.5 to 0.6 million tonnes. This represents a substantial decline of 0.25 million tonnes compared to the same period in the previous year.
The primary driver behind this downturn is the intensification of military actions in the Black Sea, specifically recent attacks on commercial vessels and essential port infrastructure. These security risks caused sunflower oil shipments from Ukraine to India to effectively cease between June and September. Consequently, Indian importers have pivoted toward soybean oil and palm oil to bridge the resulting supply deficit.
Monthly data highlights the scale of the shortfall; India’s sunflower oil imports for September and October are estimated at just 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes. While Argentina contributed 70,000 to 80,000 tonnes last month, industry players are looking toward Bulgaria, which is expected to supply approximately 140,000 to 170,000 tonnes in the coming months, reaching further into the 2026 horizon for specific long-term contracts.
In contrast, palm oil is seeing a massive surge. Imports are forecasted to hit 2.4 million tonnes this quarter, the highest level for this period in four years. This 0.6-million-tonne year-on-year increase was catalyzed by India’s decision to reduce import duties on September 24. Furthermore, high inventory levels in Malaysia and the price competitiveness of palm oil relative to soft oils have bolstered demand. Soybean oil is also trending upward, with imports expected to reach 1.53 million tonnes, though South America’s seasonal production decline may cap further growth.
Broader regional shifts are also evident. Kazakhstan is rapidly expanding its oilseed processing sector, with current capacity at 5.4 million tonnes and a target of 9 million tonnes by 2029. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to struggle with logistics; despite an export forecast of 600,000 tonnes of peas for the 2026/27 marketing year, ongoing maritime blockades and infrastructure damage remain critical hurdles for the recovery of global agricultural trade flows.
Source: AgroPortal.ua