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The olive oil sector across the Arab world is bracing for a season of stark contrasts in production and pricing for 2026-2027. Market dynamics are currently shaped by a combination of recovering yields in the Levant and climate-driven challenges in the Maghreb, alongside the persistent impact of production costs, inventory levels, and geopolitical tensions.
In Jordan, Taysir Al-Najdawi, head of the Olive Press Owners Association, anticipates an 84% surge in oil production to reach 30,000 tons. Prices for a 16kg tin are expected to fluctuate between 95 and 120 JOD. Similarly, Syria's Ministry of Agriculture forecasts a significant output increase to 191,000 tons, up from 66,000 tons last season, with early prices in Daraa hovering around $100 per tin.
Conversely, the Maghreb region faces a downturn. Kamal Benkhaled, President of the Interprofessional Olive Federation in Morocco, projects a 40% decline in fruit harvest to 1.2 million tons. However, wholesale prices are expected to remain stable at approximately 45 MAD per liter due to existing stocks. In Tunisia, Moldi Ramdhani of the National Oil Council estimates production will drop to 300,000 tons, with costs ranging between 12 and 13 TND per liter, supported by state intervention programs.
The situation in Palestine shows potential for recovery, with the Ministry of Agriculture projecting production to rise to 21,000 tons, provided farmers gain access to their groves. Current prices vary widely between 40 and 80 ILS per kg. In Lebanon, the sector faces severe strain as conflict has damaged nearly 6,600 hectares of olive trees, with prices in the south projected to hit $200 per 16kg tin.
Source: 24.ae