Lang
According to USDA forecasts, global vegetable oil production in the 2026/27 marketing year is set to climb to a record 244.95 million tonnes, up from 238.75 million tonnes in 2025/26, 230.8 million tonnes in 2024/25, and 222.4 million tonnes in 2023/24. However, ending stocks are projected to remain flat at 30.8 million tonnes as rising consumption absorbs the additional output.
The combination of halted oil exports from Black Sea ports in Ukraine and the Russian Federation and elevated crude oil prices is keeping vegetable oil values firm. While crude oil has surged 34% year-on-year, vegetable oil prices have gained a more modest 10-15%.
In the energy complex, October Brent crude futures slipped 2.8% over the past seven days to $88.5 per barrel (+2.3% month-on-month), but remain 34% above the prior year's level, sustaining robust demand for biofuels and underpinning oilseed prices.
On Bursa Malaysia, October palm oil futures advanced 1.8% over the week to 4,946 ringgit per tonne, equivalent to $1,224 per tonne (+4.2% over two weeks, +15% year-on-year). The rally reflects active import demand and concerns that El Niño could trim palm and soybean harvests across South America. In local currency, palm oil has risen 10% over the year, while in dollar terms the increase reaches 15%; soybean and sunflower oil prices have climbed more sharply.
December soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade eased 2.6% during the week to $1,493 per tonne (-2.5% month-on-month), yet remain well above last year's $1,145 per tonne amid firm crude values and a closed US biodiesel market. In Brazil, spot soybean oil prices firmed by $10 per tonne to $1,210-1,220 per tonne FOB, while Dalian soybean oil futures added $35-40 per tonne to reach $1,300-1,311 per tonne (+10% year-on-year), supported by expectations of a smaller Chinese soybean harvest.
Sunflower oil demand prices in India slipped $20 per tonne to $1,470 per tonne CIF Mumbai during the week as fresh Black Sea crop supplies increased, but remain 15% above year-ago levels. Russian sunflower oil for September delivery dropped $30 per tonne to $1,330 per tonne FOB as harvesting began in southern Russia, though the new season is opening 15-16% above last year's mark.
In Ukraine, demand prices for sunflower oil fell $20-30 per tonne to $1,300 per tonne for delivery to Danube ports — a level just 10-11% above last year's Black Sea quotations. In Europe, rapeseed oil quotations declined another $30-40 per tonne over the week to $1,390-1,400 per tonne FOB Netherlands, a move likely to weigh on rapeseed oil values in Ukraine and sunflower oil prices within the EU.
Source: Electronic Grain Exchange of Ukraine