Lang
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released on 12 August, kept its forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production for the 2025-2026 season unchanged, and also left its soybean oil price projections steady.
The outlook for U.S. soybeans in 2025-2026 points to lower beginning stocks, production and ending stocks. Beginning stocks were cut by 20 million bushels due to higher crush and export volumes in the previous season. Soybean production in 2025-2026 is forecast at around 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million bushels on lower planted area, partly offset by higher yields. Harvested area is projected at 80.1 million acres, down 2.4 million acres from the July forecast. The first survey-based yield estimate came in at 53.6 bushels per acre, up 1.1 bushels from last month. With supplies tighter and export sales running slower so far this season, the export forecast was cut by 40 million bushels, while the crush forecast held steady at 2.54 billion bushels. U.S. ending stocks are estimated at around 290 million bushels, down 20 million bushels from last month.
USDA also kept its forecast that 15.5 billion pounds of soybean oil will go toward biofuel production in the 2025-2026 season, and left the 2024-2025 estimate unchanged at 12.25 billion pounds. Around 12.989 billion pounds of soybean oil were directed to biofuel production in the 2023-2024 season.
The department expects the average U.S. soybean price for 2025-2026 to be around $10.10 per bushel, unchanged from the previous forecast. Soybean meal is expected to average $280 per short ton, down $10, while soybean oil remains steady at 53 cents per pound.
On the global front, the 2025-2026 supply and demand outlook for soybeans points to lower production, exports and ending stocks. The decline in global production is mainly attributed to lower output in the United States and Serbia. Export forecasts were cut for the United States, while those for Argentina and Uruguay were raised. Imports were also lowered for the European Union, Iran and Vietnam. Global ending stocks fell by 1.2 million tonnes to 124.9 million tonnes, reflecting lower stocks in Argentina, the European Union, Iran, Vietnam and the United States.
According to USDA's latest monthly Crop Production report, issued by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) on 12 August, U.S. soybean production for 2025 is forecast at about 4.29 billion bushels, down 2% from last year.
Average soybean yield is expected to reach a record 53.6 bushels per acre, up 2.9 bushels from 2024. If realised, this would mean record yields in Arkansas, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia.
Harvested soybean area in the United States is forecast at 80.1 million acres, down 3% from the previous estimate and 7% from last year.
According to USDA, NASS interviewed around 14,900 farmers across the country in preparing the report.
Source: The Western Producer