Lang
US farmers began harvesting soybeans in September without a single order from the world's largest buyer: China. American producers are bringing in a crop the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates at 4.3 billion bushels, with no indication of when shipments to China will resume. In a normal year, China buys more than half of total US soybean exports. Meanwhile, Brazil posted record shipments to China for the January–August 2025 period. In this article, we review soybean trade flows from the United States and Brazil to China over the past two years, examine the trade relationship between these countries dating back to before the first round of the trade war in 2018, and look at the possible consequences if a trade deal is not reached this autumn.
China is by far the largest buyer of US soybeans. In 2024, the United States shipped almost 985 million bushels to China, representing 51% of the country's total soybean exports that year. In 2025, however, total US soybean exports to China for the January–August period reached just 218 million bushels — only 29% of total exports for that period. In June, July and August, shipments to China were virtually non-existent.
A combination of a 20% retaliatory tariff, Chinese value-added tax (VAT) and most-favoured-nation (MFN) duties has pushed total tariffs on US soybeans to 34% in 2025. Although this new retaliatory rate is 5% lower than during the 2018 trade war, the additional duties are expected to keep US soybean prices higher than South American supplies ahead of the US harvest this autumn, according to the American Soybean Association in a letter sent to the White House in August.
With harvest already under way in some areas, US producers are worried about their ability to market the crop, particularly given limited storage capacity in their silos and expectations for a record corn harvest — exceeding 16 billion bushels for the first time. In parts of the Midwest, grain production may exceed available storage space. This situation could pressure spot prices at harvest time and create greater demand for temporary storage.Corn Harvest Reaches 11% as USDA Highlights Varying Crop Conditions in Latest Report
While American farmers await a possible trade deal to regain access to the Chinese market, Brazil exported a record 2.474 billion bushels of soybeans to China from January to August this year, according to the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex/Brazil). This volume represented 76% of Brazil's total soybean exports during that period. In August alone, China bought 290 million bushels from Brazil, setting a monthly record with an 85% share of Brazilian soybean exports.
China's current share of Brazilian soybean exports is historically high — comparable only to 2018, when President Trump launched the first trade war with China. The difference is that since then, Brazil's soybean production has risen by 40%, meaning the volumes involved today are far larger. From the 2017/18 to 2024/25 growing seasons, Brazil's soybean production jumped from 4.5 billion bushels to 6.3 billion bushels, according to Conab, Brazil's national food supply and statistics agency.
China's soybean imports have climbed to record levels over the past three months, fuelling speculation that buyers may be rushing shipments to avoid purchasing from the United States. In August, China imported a record 451 million bushels, with no shipments arriving from the United States. From May to August this year, China imported 1.837 billion bushels of soybeans, according to China's General Administration of Customs, with nearly 90% of those purchases coming from Brazil's record crop.
This context has directly affected soybean prices in Brazil's domestic market. While US soybean prices fall due to the Chinese ban, Brazilian prices have been rising since March — when Chinese buyers began purchasing large volumes of Brazilian soybeans. Even after a record harvest that ended in May, export premiums at Brazilian ports remain unusually high for this time of year, helping offset lower international prices and the depreciation of the US dollar against the Brazilian real.Grain Exchange Forecasts: Argentine Grain and By-Product Exports Could Reach Record Levels in 2025/26 Season
China leads global soybean trade, accounting for about 60% of world imports. In 2024, 23% of US soybean production and 48% of Brazil's production were exported to China. Historically, the United States was one of China's main suppliers, but this trend has shifted over the past decade (see farmdoc daily, 20 February 2024). From 2011 to 2017 — the seven years preceding the trade war — US exports to China averaged 60% of total US soybean exports. In the seven years following the trade war, from 2018 to 2024, that share fell to an average of 47%. Over the same period, Brazil's share increased slightly from 73% to 74%.
China's share of US soybean exports had been rising since 2020 but never fully returned to pre-trade-war levels, and in 2025 it now faces the risk of a sharp decline once again. If no deal is reached in the coming weeks, Brazil's exports to China are expected to rise to levels last seen in 2018. As China increases its soybean purchases from Brazil, mutual dependence between the two countries deepens, raising questions about whether their agricultural relationship represents a greater opportunity or a growing over-reliance.
The United States was the world's largest soybean exporter for many years. In 2013, Brazil overtook the United States in soybean shipments for the first time, following one of the country's major recent droughts. Since then, Brazil's share of global soybean trade has expanded steadily, with exports reaching 3.63 billion bushels in 2024, according to Secex/Brazil data. In the same year, total US soybean exports amounted to 1.93 billion bushels, according to the USDA.
It is important to note that the diminishing role of the United States in global soybean markets reflects not only weaker trade relations with China but also rising domestic demand. US soybean crush capacity has been growing since 2020. This expansion is fuelled mainly by increasing demand for soybean oil, particularly from the renewable diesel sector. Over the past five years, the renewable diesel boom has driven new demand for soybean oil as a feedstock for biofuel production.
Although Brazil has also increased its biodiesel production in recent years, driven by government incentive policies, the country has also expanded its soybean planting area, particularly by converting degraded pastureland into farmland in the Brazilian savannah, known as the "Cerrado". Looking ahead, a study based on geospatial databases led by the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa) shows that Brazil has the potential to convert an additional 70 million acres of pastureland into crop production.China Halts US Soybean Purchases as Harvest Begins, Raising Storage and Price Concerns
If a trade deal is not reached this autumn, US soybean producers who rely on Chinese buyers could suffer significant losses, adding further financial pressure on crop farms. Rising input costs, such as fertilisers, chemicals and seeds, combined with lower domestic prices, are already squeezing profits. Furthermore, many producers may be forced to store their harvested soybean crop rather than sell it at steep losses, affecting the entire supply chain — from grain elevators and processors to the rail network that moves the crop across the country.
Even before the recent stumble in US soybean exports, net return forecasts were relatively low. The current export situation compounds the problem. Some support may come from federal government payments to producers, as occurred during the first round of the trade war, but in many cases, such assistance may not be enough to prevent mounting financial pressure. In the medium term, prolonged uncertainty could disrupt planting decisions for the 2026 growing season and reduce farmers' ability to repay long-term debt and invest in their operations.
As US soybean exports to China decline, further eroding the market share lost during the 2018 trade war, Chinese buyers are expected to continue shifting their purchases to Brazil and other suppliers. As a result, Brazil and other South American producers such as Argentina, Paraguay and Bolivia may expand soybean planting areas early this year, as planting of the 2025/26 crop gets under way across the southern hemisphere.
Furthermore, Argentina's announcement that it will eliminate export taxes (called retenciones in Spanish) on all grains until 31 October, in order to boost its dollar reserves, is expected to spur additional exports from the world's third-largest soybean exporter and leading exporter of soybean meal and oil. This move will give China another attractive option for buying soybeans and related products on the global market this autumn.
Source: Successful Farming