Sunflower Market Keeps Close Eye On Global Weather

The sunflower market is closely watching weather conditions worldwide, including the US Northern Plains, where the crop is developing well so far, and the Black Sea region, where hot, dry conditions are a growing concern.

According to John Sandbakken, executive director of the National Sunflower Association (NSA), in the newsletter issued on 28 July 2025:

"Right now, weather conditions are largely favourable for sunflower crop growth in North Dakota and Minnesota,"
but he added that market participants are paying increasing attention to the Black Sea region, where persistently high temperatures and a lack of rainfall have become a growing concern for sunflower production there.

Sandbakken noted that these conditions have stressed the sunflower crop in Ukraine and southern Russia – two of the world's largest sunflower-producing regions – as well as parts of Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Turkey.

He also pointed out that the Oil World report estimated Russia's sunflower production at around 19.4 million tonnes, and Ukraine's at 14 million tonnes,

"(though these estimates could prove far too high given the current growing conditions)"
He noted that the same report, published by the Hamburg-based firm, also cut its forecasts for production in the EU and Turkey compared with previous estimates.
"The report also flagged a risk of further damage if the crops do not receive sufficient rainfall soon."

He explained that weather has been a decisive factor in the sunflower crop's development, particularly during July, a critical month for the crop in these regions. Given conditions in Europe and Russia, world sunflower production for the 2025-2026 season was estimated at around 60.3 million tonnes, according to Oil World estimates, compared with the USDA's estimate of 56.3 million tonnes.

"This situation is worth watching closely, especially since Russia and Ukraine are the world's largest exporters of sunflower oil. Reduced availability of sunflower seed and oil could threaten global markets, and prices will be highly sensitive to any potential shortfall in production."
He also noted that the global stocks-to-use ratio is expected to rise slightly by the end of the 2025-2026 marketing year compared with the previous year, based on current production estimates.

Old-Crop And New-Crop Prices:

• Old-crop sunflower prices saw little change, ranging from unchanged to up 35 cents, while new-crop prices held steady during the week ended 26 July 2025.
• On 29 July 2025, Cargill in West Fargo, North Dakota, posted a cash price of $26.85 per 100 lbs for August delivery and $25.15 for September delivery.
• ADM in Enderlin offered a cash price of $26.75 for August delivery and $25.20 for September delivery.
• In Pingree, ADM did not quote prices (No Quote) for August and September.

2025 New-Crop Contracts:

• Prices available at crushing plants ranged from $21.50 to $22 cash, and $21 to $21.50 with an Act of God (AOG) clause.
• In Enderlin: cash contract price of $22, and $21.50 with an AOG clause.
• In West Fargo: $21.75 cash.
• In Pingree: $21.50 cash, and $21 with an AOG clause.

Source: The Western Producer