Lang
The January WASDE report lowered the forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production for the 2024-2025 marketing year.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its forecast for soybean use in biofuel production for 2024-2025 in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released on 10 January. The forecast for soybean oil prices remained unchanged.
According to the USDA, soybean production for 2024-2025 is now estimated at around 4.4 billion bushels, down 95 million bushels due to declines in Indiana, Kansas, South Dakota, Illinois, Iowa and Ohio. Harvested area is estimated at 86.1 million acres, down 200,000 acres. Yield is estimated at 50.7 bushels per acre, down one bushel. With lower production, slightly higher imports, and unchanged exports and crush, ending soybean stocks are expected to reach 380 million bushels, down 90 million bushels. Adjustments to the soybean oil balance sheet include higher exports and a lower volume of soybean oil used in biofuel production.
The USDA currently expects 13.6 billion pounds of soybean oil to be used in biofuel production for 2024-2025, down from last month's forecast of 14 billion pounds. Soybean oil use in biofuel production totalled 12.989 billion pounds in 2023-2024 and 12.51 billion pounds in 2022-2023.
The season-average US soybean price for 2024-2025 is estimated at $10.20 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean meal prices were raised by $10 to $310 per short tonne. The soybean oil price forecast remains unchanged at 43 cents per pound.
Global oilseed production was lowered by 300,000 tonnes to 551.9 million tonnes, mainly due to lower rapeseed production in India, Russia and Uruguay, along with reduced soybean output in Russia and China.
Global soybean exports were unchanged, while global soybean crush rose by 1.9 million tonnes to 349.3 million tonnes. Crush in Brazil increased on the back of strong soybean meal exports during the first quarter. Iraq's soybean balance sheet was added to the database given rising soybean imports over the past few years, contributing to the month-on-month increase in global crush. Global ending soybean stocks are estimated at 128.4 million tonnes, down 3.5 million tonnes, mainly due to lower stocks in the United States and Brazil.