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Early estimates for the current olive oil season point to potentially record output in a number of producing countries, with a clear improvement over last season.
In Spain, production is expected to rise by 20% year-on-year to around 1.25 million tonnes. In Tunisia, the Ministry of Agriculture is forecasting a historic harvest of up to 500,000 tonnes, marking a major improvement on last season. In Morocco, output is projected to reach 200,000 tonnes, up from just 90,000 tonnes in 2024, leaving an exportable surplus estimated at 60,000 tonnes.
Detailed Outlook For Tunisia
Production forecasts vary by region: output in Gabès governorate is expected to reach around 75,000 tonnes, while the harvest in Ben Arous governorate could exceed 20,000 tonnes.
On the pricing front, the retail cost of a litre of olive oil ranges between 18 and 22 dinars, with demand for exports expected to rise.
Regarding challenges, despite optimism over the abundant harvest, the sector faces difficulties related to storage and maintaining oil quality, making government support essential to ensure the sector's sustainability. On this point, Mohamed Nasraoui, Secretary-General of the National Federation of Olive Producers within the Tunisian Union of Agriculture, stated that there are no issues with storage capacity, as Tunisia has a storage capability exceeding 400,000 tonnes of olive oil, split between private operators and the National Oil Office, which alone has a storage capacity of 100,000 tonnes.
Nasraoui stressed the importance of securing financing for storage operations, both for mill owners and exporters, saying: "We need financing for the system beyond the farmer, given that the farmer is ready and the crop is ready for sale." He called for storage subsidies granted to farmers, exporters and mill owners to be sufficient to cover the monthly interest costs banks charge on stored oil, noting that the farmers' union has formally submitted this request to the Ministry of Agriculture.
He added that the oil could be marketed without any problems if this financing condition is met.
On the marketing front, Mohamed Nasraoui explained that there are usually no problems marketing Tunisian olive oil, noting that by the end of last August, 252,000 tonnes of olive oil had been exported.
Global Trends
On export markets, producing countries are working to strengthen their presence in global markets, particularly in the United States, by improving product quality and increasing production volumes. Modern technologies are also expected to play a key role in boosting productivity and improving quality, in order to meet growing global demand for olive oil.
Source: Tunisie Telegraph