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Olive oil, a cornerstone of Mediterranean culture and cuisine, is facing an unprecedented environmental threat. A new scientific study published this month in the journal Communications Earth & Environment has found that rising water stress, combined with an anticipated decline in solar activity, could significantly undermine olive production across the Mediterranean region, which supplies more than 98% of the world's olives.
The study was led by an international team of scientists who used 8,000-year-old fossil pollen records to reconstruct the history of olive tree production and examine the long-term factors influencing yields. The findings showed that changes in temperature, rainfall and solar radiation will affect the resilience of olive groves, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, posing serious challenges for farmers and economies that depend on olive cultivation.
Lead author Samuel Lotterbach, a climate scientist at the University of Giessen in Germany, said:
"Most studies focus on short-term climate fluctuations. What we show here is that there are long-term climate cycles - including solar cycles - that have shaped olive production over thousands of years, and these cycles are now being disrupted."
The study identified three key climate factors affecting olive production: photosynthesis, water availability and solar radiation. Together, these factors determine the trees' ability to flower and bear fruit. The researchers found that historical drought periods and reduced solar activity were linked to significant declines in olive pollen, which is used as a proxy indicator of productivity.
Drawing on data from Syria, Palestine, Turkey, Greece, Italy and Spain, the team simulated past climate impacts and projected them into the future. The results were troubling: as global temperatures rise and rainfall patterns shift, olive trees will face greater water stress, particularly during sensitive stages such as flowering and fruit formation.
Adding to the concerns, the study warned that the sun may be entering a new "grand solar minimum" - an extended period of reduced solar radiation. The last such event occurred during the "Maunder Minimum" of the 17th century, which coincided with the "Little Ice Age" and the widespread agricultural disruptions that accompanied it.
Reduced solar activity would lower the energy available for photosynthesis, in turn affecting olive production. This convergence of environmental pressures - drought and reduced light - amounts to what the researchers described as a "perfect storm" that could devastate olive cultivation in the region.
The implications extend well beyond agriculture. Olive oil is a food and economic staple in countries such as Spain, Italy, Greece and Tunisia. According to the International Olive Council, more than 6.7 million households depend on olive farming for their livelihoods.
In Egypt, although not yet a major producer, olive cultivation has expanded significantly in recent years, particularly in reclaimed desert land. Experts warn, however, that this trend could be jeopardised if the water crisis intensifies under climate change.
Egyptian agricultural engineer Mohamed Daoud, a specialist in dryland farming, said:
"This study underscores the importance of adapting our agricultural practices to climate change. In Egypt, many new olive farms are located on marginal land where water efficiency is already a challenge. If drought intensifies and solar radiation declines, yields will suffer unless we change how we manage irrigation and soil health."
The study called for a fundamental rethink of olive grove management, with key recommendations including:
The study comes as climate disruption intensifies. Severe heatwaves and shifting rainfall patterns are already affecting crops across the Mediterranean. In 2023, Spain - one of the world's largest olive oil producers - saw production fall by 50% due to severe drought.
Co-author Inés Álvarez, a researcher at the University of Jaén in Spain, said:
"These aren't just warnings about the distant future. We are already seeing the effects of climate change on olive groves. What our study adds is a deeper understanding of the natural cycles that have sustained olive production for thousands of years - and how these cycles are now being thrown out of balance."
The authors stress that national and regional policies must move faster to support sustainable water use, protect biodiversity and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to safeguard the future of olive cultivation.
For Egypt, which is seeking to establish itself as a future hub for olive oil production and export, this may be a critical moment to adopt climate-smart agriculture. As olive trees across the Mediterranean send out subtle warning signs, the message is clear: this "liquid gold" is at risk, and time is running out.
Source: Daily News Egypt