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OilWorld has trimmed its forecast for the European Union rapeseed harvest, projecting a smaller crop than initially expected after abnormal heat damaged fields across the continent.
Despite an expansion of the EU rapeseed area by 0.24 million hectares to 6.37 million hectares, the consultancy now pegs gross production at 19.85 million tonnes with an average yield of 3.12 tonnes per hectare. The 2025 harvest reached 20.51 million tonnes at 3.35 tonnes per hectare.
The damage is concentrated in the bloc's main producing countries. In Germany, output is expected to slip to 3.8 million tonnes from 3.98 million tonnes a year earlier. In the Czech Republic, where the harvest is nearly complete, yields have dropped 16% versus 2025, the planted area is down 8–9%, and the gross harvest is down 19%. In Sweden, low yields are expected to cap production at no more than 0.39 million tonnes. France remains the bright spot, with sown area rising from 4.64 to 4.71 million hectares and output climbing from 1.27 to 1.42 million tonnes.
The European Climate Service Copernicus has confirmed the scale of the weather anomalies, reporting that June and July 2026 were the hottest on record in Western Europe, with average temperatures 2.79°C above the norm. Drought conditions affected 38% of the EU, including 15% of arable land.
Despite the tighter EU outlook, Paris rapeseed futures have moved lower. Uncertainty over the EU harvest and export prospects from Ukraine, combined with rising Canadian canola prices, weighed on quotes. On the Matif exchange, the November rapeseed contract opened the season at €512 per tonne, touched a two-year high of €554 per tonne in mid-July, pulled back to €512 per tonne in early August, and rebounded to €549 per tonne in mid-August. Yesterday, the contract dropped 3.1% to €522 per tonne, or about $609 per tonne, tracking weakness in Canadian canola.
OilWorld said it expects further speculative swings in rapeseed quotes, as supplies from Ukraine, Canada and Australia are likely to be limited or unstable this season. EU processors, the consultancy added, will need to lift bids to attract the required volumes.
Source: Electronic Grain Exchange of Ukraine