Lang
The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects benchmark palm oil prices to rise to 4,500 ringgit ($1,082) a tonne by the end of the year. In a statement on Thursday, the council said its lower-end forecast points to prices trading between 4,100 and 4,200 ringgit.
The council said the anticipated price increase is linked to steady import demand ahead of Chinese New Year and Ramadan, coupled with mixed supply prospects in the coming months.
The body said: "The exceptionally strong production from July to October 2025 also means a sharper-than-usual seasonal decline in output during December through the first quarter of 2026, as oil palm trees enter their biological rest phase." It added that the onset of the monsoon season in mid-November is expected to disrupt harvesting activities.
According to MPOC, the price outlook is also being supported by uncertainty surrounding biodiesel policy in Indonesia. Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, plans to roll out its B50 biodiesel programme by the second half of 2026, which would raise the palm oil-based content in biodiesel to 50%, up from 40% currently. The move is expected to reduce the country's international sales.
The council's statement comes as palm oil prices have been trading between 4,109 and 4,226 ringgit since the start of November.
Separately, Hamburg-based oilseed analysis firm Oil World forecast that prices could reach 5,000 ringgit within six months, citing uncertainties in Indonesia's supply chain.
Source: Bernama