Lang
Crude palm oil (CPO) prices in Indonesia are projected to range between $959 and $1,172 per tonne in 2026, according to the Palm Oil Commodity Outlook 2026 published by UkrAgroConsult. The report outlines three price scenarios, with the lower, mid and upper estimates set at $959, $1,066 and $1,172 per tonne respectively. For context, the average CPO price stood at $942 per tonne in 2024, while the forecast for 2025 was $1,017 per tonne.
A central factor supporting the upward trajectory is Indonesia's B40 biodiesel programme, which mandates a 40% share of biodiesel in the national fuel blend. Rising palm oil uptake by the biofuels sector is generating fresh domestic demand while reducing the feedstock available for exports and other applications.
Between 2020 and 2024, Indonesia's palm oil consumption for biodiesel production grew at an average annual rate of 12.2%. By 2025, the country's installed biodiesel production capacity had reached 19.15 million kilolitres, underpinned by 26 production facilities spread across the archipelago.
Alongside biofuels demand, overall domestic consumption and exports remain robust. In the first seven months of 2025, domestic consumption reached 14.3 million tonnes, up 6.57% year-on-year, while exports climbed 11.1% to 19.2 million tonnes.
CPO price dynamics in the year ahead will hinge not only on the rollout of the B40 mandate but also on output of competing vegetable oils, demand from major importing countries and their trade policies. Other pivotal variables include the price ratio between crude oil and vegetable oils, the level of state support for biodiesel production, and palm oil production trends in Indonesia.
Source: UkrAgroConsult