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At Mamiche bakeries in Paris's 9th and 10th arrondissements, popular pastries such as pain au chocolat and croissants rely on a key ingredient that has become increasingly scarce — butter.
The bakery's usual supplier can no longer guarantee steady volumes of French tourage butter, a flat block-form butter used in laminated pastry-making. Mamiche has had to seek out alternative suppliers to keep production running, but the switch has come at a cost.
Butter prices in most parts of the world remain close to record levels, and there is no end in sight to the rally. The situation stems from a complex interplay of factors — ranging from the challenges facing dairy farmers in France and New Zealand, to shifting consumer tastes in Asia, to commercial decisions by milk processors aimed at protecting their profits.
The end result is mounting pressure on the prices of consumers' favourite foods.
"When we have to change suppliers, we feel the difference straight away," says Robin Orsoni, operations manager at Mamiche, noting that new suppliers are charging 25% to 30% more. Even so, Mamiche is absorbing the extra cost. "We want to keep our customers happy — we need the butter," he adds.
Around 70% of the world's butter exports come from just two regions — Europe and New Zealand. Both began 2025 with historically low stocks, pushing prices to record highs, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
The roots of the crisis can be traced back to 2022, when milk prices in Europe surged due to inflation and rising fuel costs, prompting dairy companies to rethink how best to maximise their profits.
Butter is made by skimming cream from raw milk and churning it. Once the process is complete, it yields both butter and buttermilk. Monika Tothova, an economist at the FAO, notes that buttermilk has relatively limited industrial uses, being utilised mainly in cooking, in certain dairy products, and as livestock feed.
Cheesemaking, by contrast, "uses the full volume of the milk," Tothova says, and even by-products such as whey command strong commercial demand as a source of flavour and nutrition, or to support protein supplements in sports nutrition.
Across the European Union, dairy processors are increasingly shifting towards cheese production, which has gradually reduced butter output. USDA estimates suggest EU butter production will fall to its lowest level in eight years.
Milk production itself has also become more difficult. In Europe, herd numbers are shrinking under financial pressure, while farmers face additional threats from diseases such as bluetongue, which affects cattle, and lumpy skin disease, which is spreading in Italy and France and hitting milk output.
Although butter has fallen out of favour with dairy processors, consumers — particularly in Asia — are turning to it more than ever.
According to USDA forecasts, global butter consumption is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2025, outpacing production. In China, demand rose by 6% in just one year, while it climbed 4% in Taiwan between 2024 and 2025, and 3% in India — the world's largest butter consumer.
The French bakery chain Bakehouse in Hong Kong has capitalised on shifting consumer tastes in Asia. It now uses around 180 tonnes of butter a year, up 96 tonnes from the previous year following the opening of two new outlets, alongside 180 tonnes of cream, according to co-founder Gregoire Michaud. He says the chain only buys from trusted suppliers — New Zealand has an excellent reputation, while China, he says, is "not ready yet."
In New Zealand, a major dairy exporter that produces around 2.5% of the world's milk, butter output has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels, hovering at around 500,000 tonnes a year since 2020.
As in Paris, supply shortages and rising prices have forced Bakehouse to switch suppliers three times in quick succession — from Australia to New Zealand and then Belgium — and it is now looking for a fourth potential supplier.
Meanwhile, Western consumers, who for years avoided butter over health concerns, are embracing it once again, partly as they move away from processed foods.
Susie Stannard, senior dairy analyst at the UK's Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, says sales of natural butter in the UK have risen. "Consumers who can afford it will keep buying it," she says, despite the price pressures.
At the new Morchella restaurant in London's Clerkenwell neighbourhood, brown butter and its accompanying bread — a signature of sister restaurant Brilla — have been replaced with olive oil.
"Before the recent price rise, we'd put a generous knob of butter in the pan to cook a piece of fish or meat. Now we have to be smarter about it," says chef Ben Marks, head chef at Brilla.
Extreme Heat Compounds the Crisis
Stannard says the recent heatwaves across Europe could make matters worse. High temperatures reduce milk yields while boosting demand for other cream-based products that compete with butter, such as ice cream.
Tennis fans enjoying strawberries and cream while watching Wimbledon, or office workers cooling off with ice cream in the summer heat, are all helping to keep butter prices elevated.
Amid this "red-hot market," Bakehouse in Hong Kong now favours suppliers located closer to home to avoid supply disruptions, according to Michaud.
For his part, Orsoni said Mamiche will continue to absorb higher butter costs in order to keep prices reasonable for its customers. But chef Marks at Brilla says higher prices for diners are simply "inevitable."
Source: The Japan Times