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Sunflower oil markets have experienced significant volatility, with prices recovering toward the 1,500 level last week as shipping disruptions in the Black Sea region constrained export availability. This recovery follows a monthly price drop of over 6% triggered by India's decision to reduce basic customs duties on crude sunflower oil imports to zero.
In India, a key global buyer, sunflower oil imports fell 36% month-on-month in September to 103,000 tonnes, marking the lowest level since April 2022. The weakness of the Indian Rupee, hovering near 96.80, has further escalated import costs and created uncertainty surrounding long-term export contracts. Moreover, sunflower oil's premium of Rs 91 over soyoil and Rs 192 over crude palm oil (CPO) discouraged price-sensitive Indian buyers, particularly in southern states, leading to a large-scale shift toward cheaper alternatives like refined palmolein.
Despite short-term hurdles, India's sunflower oil imports are projected to rise by 30% to 3.5 million tonnes in the 2026/27 season. Notably, the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) launched cash-settled crude sunflower oil futures on October 12, 2026, to improve domestic price discovery. Indian refiners have also stepped up replacement buying ahead of Diwali and post-monsoon wedding demand to replenish depleting port inventories.
On the supply side, geopolitical tensions continue to impact the market. Attacks on Black Sea ports halved Ukraine's monthly exports during August and September, while Russia shipped only approximately 5,000 tonnes in September, compared to over 200,000 tonnes a year earlier. Market estimates from the Globoil conference in Mumbai suggest that Ukraine's exports between October and March may average 300,000 tonnes monthly, roughly 50% below normal levels. Global carry-in stocks have also hit a four-year low of 2.488 million tonnes.
Looking ahead, the International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts global sunflower seed production to increase by 10% to 62.1 million tonnes in 2026/27. Russia is expected to hit a record output of 21 million tonnes, while Ukraine’s production is forecast to rise by 11% to 13.5 million tonnes. EU production is also set to exceed 9.5 million tonnes. Technical indicators show the RSI at 32.32, recovering from oversold territory, while the MACD has generated a bullish crossover. Historically, prices gain an average of 6.76% in October based on five-year seasonal trends.
Source: Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory