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The latest July report from USDA FAS experts indicates an improved global oilseed balance for the 2026/27 marketing year (MY) following an upward revision in production forecasts. Despite this seemingly positive supply outlook, soybean and canola prices have continued their ascent, driven by a concurrent rise in global oil prices.
The projected global oilseed production for 2026/27 MY has been increased by 1.8 million tons, reaching a record 720 million tons. This figure represents a 2.8% increase over the 700.7 million tons recorded in 2025/26 MY (compared to 686.65 million tons in 2024/25 MY and 657.5 million tons in 2023/24 MY). This boost is primarily attributed to higher production forecasts for sunflower (+0.6 million tons to 62.66 million tons), rapeseed (+0.68 million tons to 97.59 million tons), and soybean (+0.35 million tons to 441.7 million tons), as well as cotton.
Global oilseed processing for 2026/27 MY is also set to increase by 1.8 million tons, reaching 608.54 million tons. This compares to 589.2 million tons in 2025/26 MY, 568.9 million tons in 2024/25 MY, and 543.74 million tons in 2023/24 MY, reflecting an expected rise in soybean and rapeseed processing activities. Conversely, world ending stocks of oilseeds for 2026/27 MY have been slightly reduced by 0.7 million tons to 146.31 million tons, relative to 146.04 million tons in 2025/26 MY, 144.4 million tons in 2024/25 MY, and 136.1 million tons in 2023/24 MY.
Specifically for soybeans, the world production forecast has been raised by 0.35 million tons to an unprecedented 441.7 million tons for 2026/27 MY, compared to 429.5 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 428 million tons in 2024/25 MY, with the overall global balance remaining largely stable since June. Production forecasts for the USA were increased by 1 million tons to 121.8 million tons (up from 116 million tons), while the Russian Federation saw a reduction of 0.8 million tons to 8 million tons (down from 9 million tons). Ukraine's forecast remained unchanged at 5.6 million tons, following 5.5 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 7.2 million tons in 2024/25 MY. In the immediate aftermath of the report, November soybean futures in Chicago climbed 0.8% to $437.5 per ton, marking a 5% increase from their level post-June report.
Sunflower production also received an upward revision, with the global forecast rising by 0.6 million tons to 62.66 million tons (compared to 55.28 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 53 million tons in 2024/25 MY). This increase is largely driven by the Russian Federation, where the forecast jumped by 1.2 million tons to 20.7 million tons (from 17.5 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 16.9 million tons in 2024/25 MY), attributed to an expansion of sowing areas by 1.5 million hectares. In contrast, Ukraine's forecast was reduced by 0.5 million tons to 13 million tons (from 11 million tons and 13 million tons in prior seasons), and the EU's forecast decreased by 0.1 million tons to 9.8 million tons (from 8.7 million tons and 8.6 million tons in previous seasons). Domestically in Ukraine, sunflower prices (50% oil content) held steady at UAH 32,000–33,000 per ton delivered to plants, consistent with last month's levels due to a season-end supply shortage. Export prices for sunflower oil, however, saw an increase of $10–15 per ton, reaching $1,330–1,340 per ton delivered to port.
World rapeseed production for 2026/27 MY is now projected to hit a record 97.6 million tons, an increase of 0.69 million tons (compared to 95.57 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 86.29 million tons in 2024/25 MY). Notable increases include Russia, up 0.4 million tons to 6.4 million tons (from 5.5 million tons), and the USA, up 0.27 million tons to 2.48 million tons (from 2.13 million tons), both attributed to expanded sowing areas. Ukraine's forecast remained at 4.35 million tons (from 3.5 million tons), while Australia's stood at 6.8 million tons (from 7.7 million tons), and the EU maintained its forecast at 20.5 million tons despite dry weather conditions in June. Despite these increases, August rapeseed futures in Paris declined 0.5% on Friday to €516.5 per ton or $589.6 per ton (a 2.3% month-on-month decrease). Nevertheless, November futures are trading €11.5 per ton higher, driven by expectations of reduced crop forecasts for Canada and Australia.
Further influencing market dynamics, November canola futures on the Winnipeg Exchange climbed 0.5% to CAD 777.6 per ton or $549 per ton (a 1.6% month-on-month increase). This rise is attributed to excessively rainy and cold weather in the Canadian prairies, which is delaying canola development. The broader oilseed markets also found support from a resurgence in Brent crude oil prices, which surged from $72 to $79 per barrel last week following renewed tensions between the US and Iran.
Source: Ukrainian Electronic Grain Exchange