Lang
China’s soybean demand and crushing are expected to increase during the 2025–2026 season because of a slight decline in production and higher imports, according to a report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
According to a March 19 report by the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), China’s total domestic soybean consumption is expected to reach 124.4 million tonnes in 2025–2026, up from 122 million tonnes in 2024–2025.
The Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report said soybean crushing is expected to reach 101 million tonnes in 2025–2026, up 2% from the previous year’s estimate of 99 million tonnes, as feed demand recovers slowly.
Meanwhile, protein meal use for feed is expected to rise slightly to 101.8 million tonnes in 2025–2026, compared with 101.6 million tonnes forecast for 2024–2025.
The USDA said consumer demand in China continues to shift from pork to poultry and aquatic products, slowing growth in soybean meal demand.
At the same time, biofuel policies and weather conditions have reduced exportable supplies of sunflower, canola, and palm oils, raising vegetable oil prices and increasing reliance on soybean crushing to produce soybean oil in the Chinese market.
The report noted that soybeans, driven by rising production in South America, are among the few products expected to see future growth in the near to medium term.
China is expected to import 106 million tonnes of soybeans in 2025–2026, up 1.9% from the 104 million tonnes forecast for 2024–2025, according to the China Oilseeds and Products Annual report.
The USDA said it expects South American exports, supported by record or near-record production, to allow China to continue importing more than 100 million tonnes.
China’s soybean production is expected to decline slightly to 19.8 million tonnes in 2025–2026, compared with 20.65 million tonnes in the previous season.
China’s latest No. 1 Central Document, published on February 23, reaffirmed food security as a top priority and set key targets for resource allocation and agricultural sector development.
According to the report, China will continue to maintain crop area, with a focus on increasing yields and crop quality through broad improvement programs.
The USDA said that despite these official directions, current policies are considered insufficient to overcome farmers’ reluctance to expand soybean planting.
Because soybean production has exceeded the amount required for food consumption, estimated at 17.2 million tonnes in 2024–2025, the surplus, which cannot compete with imported soybeans in the crushing market, has pressured prices.