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Traders are sceptical that China will meet its pledge to buy 12 million tonnes of US soybeans in 2025 and 25 million tonnes annually from 2026 to 2028 under a trade agreement signed between the two countries late last month, according to a World Grain report published on 4 December.
A Reuters report from 2 December said six cargoes of US soybeans were being loaded or queued for loading this week at US Gulf ports for shipment to China, with a seventh cargo en route. The report noted these shipments would be the first deliveries of US soybeans to China since earlier this year.
China had purchased 1.584 million tonnes of US soybeans for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year over three days during the week ending 16 November, the largest weekly purchase volume in more than two years, according to World Grain.
The report noted that China's November bookings for shipment in the 2025/2026 season totalled 2.151 million tonnes, alongside a goodwill purchase of 100,000 tonnes on 30 October.
World Grain said these orders lifted US soybean futures and spurred domestic soybean sales, as farmers had been holding back new-crop supplies amid low prices.
However, with less than a month remaining in the current calendar year, the total still falls well short of China's 12-million-tonne commitment, the report said. Despite renewed Chinese purchases, which many traders regarded as modest, doubts remain over whether China will fulfil its obligations, whether short-term or long-term.
World Grain wrote that China has not confirmed the details of the trade framework agreement reached with the United States in late October.
Since the trade agreement was signed, US President Donald Trump was quoted as saying the 12-million-tonne commitment would be met before the first part of 2026, walking back an earlier statement by Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins that this would be achieved in 2025, according to the report.
According to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released by the USDA on 14 November, total US soybean exports for the 2025/2026 season were forecast at 1.635 billion bushels, or 44.5 million tonnes, down 50 million bushels from the September forecast and down 240 million bushels, or 13%, from the previous year.
Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX Group, was quoted as saying China lacks the storage capacity to fulfil its US soybean commitments in addition to previous purchases.
In addition, as China continues to reduce its soybean imports in a bid to boost self-sufficiency, its soybean purchases are expected to fall by one million tonnes year on year to 106 million tonnes in the 2025/2026 season, according to a USDA report issued on 4 December.
Meanwhile, Brazilian soybeans are trading at lower prices than US shipments, according to trade sources cited in the World Grain report. Against this backdrop, the USDA forecast Brazilian soybean exports for the 2025/2026 season at around 112.5 million tonnes, up 9% from the previous year.
Source: World Grain