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China's Agriculture Outlook Committee (CAOC) has maintained its projections for the nation's vegetable oil sector for the 2026/27 marketing year, as reported in its latest July CASDE update. Overall vegetable oil production in China is anticipated to reach 31.41 million tons, while consumption is forecast to stand at 37.89 million tons.
Specific forecasts for key oils also remain stable. Soybean oil production is projected to hold steady at 17.17 million tons, and rapeseed oil output is expected to stay at 7.77 million tons. The committee highlighted that China's domestic vegetable oil market is currently well-balanced, a stability attributed to sufficient existing inventories and the expectation of plentiful global oilseed supplies.
Domestically, China has largely concluded its procurement of the new rapeseed crop. Trading activity in this segment remains consistent, with prices generally aligning with levels seen in previous years, although premium-quality rapeseed continues to fetch higher prices.
Internationally, market attention is keenly focused on Canada, where rapeseed planting has recently been completed. The area dedicated to rapeseed cultivation in Canada has reportedly reached its highest level in nearly a decade, a development that is bolstering expectations of increased global supplies and exerting ongoing downward pressure on rapeseed prices worldwide.
CAOC further observed that the broader global oilseed market environment continues to be advantageous for importing nations. The prospect of robust harvests in major producing countries is set to ensure abundant raw material availability, a factor that is instrumental in supporting the stability of China's vegetable oil market as the new season progresses.
Source: UkrAgroConsult