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The global soybean complex is undergoing a significant rebalancing as China’s market shift from bean-led imports to oil-led exports recalibrates regional pricing and trade flows. Weaker demand for meal and edible oils, coupled with high domestic inventories, is curbing China’s appetite for international raw supplies while fostering a more aggressive export environment for vegetable oils.
Import statistics for October 2026 highlight this cooling trend, with soybean arrivals dropping to 7.35 million tonnes—the lowest for that month since 2023. This represents a 38% decline from September and a 22.5% drop year-on-year. For the 2026/27 marketing year, imports are forecast at 110 million tonnes, down from 114 million tonnes in the prior season. Crushing activity is also expected to decelerate from 108 million to 106 million tonnes, reflecting poor margins and a declining pig population that has dampened feed demand.
In terms of physical pricing, benchmarks remain moderately firm. Ukrainian GMO-free soybeans (CPT Odesa) were quoted at EUR 0.387/kg on November 10, up from EUR 0.383/kg. US No. 2 soybeans (FOB Washington D.C.) held steady at EUR 0.55/kg as of early November, suggesting that US exporters have not yet resorted to aggressive discounting despite the slowdown in Chinese buying. Within China, domestic yellow soybeans reached EUR 0.79/kg, with organic lots hitting EUR 0.90/kg, indicating elevated internal prices despite high stocks.
A pivotal shift is occurring in the oil sector. Surplus stocks and subdued domestic consumption are projected to push Chinese soybean oil exports to a record 1.35 million tonnes in 2026/27. This surge positions China as a significant competitor to traditional palm and sunflower oil suppliers in Asian and Middle Eastern markets. Meanwhile, commercial crushers in China remain focused on South American beans to avoid the 10% retaliatory tariffs still affecting US origins.
In South America, Brazil’s 2026/27 outlook remains constructive. National planting has reached 66.8% of the intended area. Despite some irregular rainfall and localized flooding in certain states, soil moisture levels are generally adequate. This robust supply pipeline from Brazil is expected to maintain competitive pressure on US exports well into 2027, as Chinese buyers prioritize crush profitability and livestock margins over volume.
Source: CMB News