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The Chinese Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE) committee, in its October report, has revised down its soybean production forecast for the 2026/27 marketing year. The adjustment stems from lower-than-anticipated planted areas and yields, though the committee maintains that total output will remain above the 20 million tonne threshold. While production estimates were cut, forecasts for soybean imports, crush volumes, and total consumption remained steady. For corn, the committee reduced its feed consumption estimates for 2025/26 while boosting industrial use, carrying these adjustments into the 2026/27 outlook while keeping production and imports unchanged. Vegetable oil forecasts for both marketing years were left unaltered.
According to the CASDE, China's 2026/27 soybean production is now projected at 20.36 million tonnes, a decrease of 590,000 tonnes from the 20.95 million tonnes estimated in September. This reduction is attributed to harvested area falling to 10.11 million hectares from 10.19 million, and yield estimates being trimmed to 2,013 kg per hectare from 2,055 kg per hectare. Despite the smaller harvest, the committee left its import forecast at 95.5 million tonnes and crush forecast at 94 million tonnes. Consequently, the projected inventory build for 2026/27 was reduced by 590,000 tonnes to 1.75 million tonnes.
In the corn sector, the committee cut the 2025/26 feed consumption estimate by 9.4 million tonnes to 201.5 million tonnes, while raising industrial consumption by 4 million tonnes to 85 million tonnes. These changes reflect an increased reliance on corn substitutes in feed and a recovery in starch plant operations. For the 2026/27 season, feed consumption was lowered to 200.5 million tonnes while industrial use was raised to 85.5 million tonnes. With production and imports held at 306 million and 6 million tonnes respectively, the projected inventory build for 2026/27 has risen significantly to 5.14 million tonnes.
Regarding edible vegetable oils, the supply and demand forecasts for 2026/27 remain unchanged from September. Production is maintained at 31.43 million tonnes, imports at 7.7 million tonnes, and consumption at 37.89 million tonnes. Specifically, soybean oil output is held at 17.17 million tonnes and rapeseed oil at 7.77 million tonnes. The committee noted that while new-crop peanuts have entered the market in large volumes, trade remains quiet. However, domestic prices are expected to find firmer support as edible oil consumption enters its seasonal peak, alongside rising international oilseed prices. The committee also flagged weather risks in southwest China, urging producers to advance rapeseed planting during dry spells to avoid potential waterlogging.
Source: Fastmarkets