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Statistics Canada (StatCan) lowered its 2026/27 marketing year canola yield forecast by 8.3% to 41.8 bushels per acre in its September report, while simultaneously raising its planted area estimate by 8.4% year-on-year to a record 23.2 million acres. The expanded area is expected to keep the canola harvest close to last year's level at approximately 22.1 million tons, well above the 17.8 million tons recorded in 2024/25. For comparison, the USDA's September report left its forecast for Canadian canola production at 22.5 million tons, against 22.23 million tons in 2025/26.
On the Winnipeg Exchange, November canola futures slipped 0.2% yesterday to CAD 827 per ton, equivalent to roughly USD 591 per ton. The contract has lost 0.6% over the week but is holding flat for the month, weighed down by delayed canola harvests across Canada following two weeks of excessive rainfall.
Warmer and drier conditions have now settled over the Canadian prairies and are forecast to persist for another 7 to 14 days, which should accelerate harvesting operations. As of September 7, 2026, only 9% of the canola area had been harvested in Saskatchewan, 15% in Manitoba, and 2.4% in Alberta — well behind last year's pace, when 20% to 30% of the crop had been threshed by the same date.
In Paris, November rapeseed futures dropped 0.6% yesterday to EUR 550.75 per ton, or about USD 635 per ton, marking a 1.2% weekly decline and a 1% monthly decline. Prices nevertheless remain elevated, supported by a 20% monthly jump in crude oil prices triggered by the Houthi blockade of Saudi oil exports.
News that the United States is engaged in talks with the Yemeni Houthi movement — which has pledged not to target or block American or Israeli vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea — eased crude prices by 3.8% yesterday, with room for further declines if military or diplomatic pressure on the group intensifies. Any such easing of crude would erode the speculative support currently underpinning rapeseed prices, leaving the contract more exposed to bearish pressure as global supply expands.
Source: Electronic Grain Exchange of Ukraine