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Brazil is expected to produce a record soybean crop in the 2024/2025 season, according to a report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
As the world's largest producer and exporter of soybeans, accounting for 40% of global output, Brazil's production is forecast to rise from 169.5 million tonnes in the 2024/2025 season to 173 million tonnes, driven by a slight increase in planted area and yields, according to a Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) report released on 21 March.
The Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) forecast that soybean exports would reach a record 112 million tonnes in the 2025/2026 season, up from 108.3 million tonnes the previous year.
The agency added that global demand for soybeans would continue to rise, with China remaining "the main driver of this demand, accounting for the largest volume of soybean imports in the world."
Despite China's push to boost self-sufficiency in grains and oilseeds, the USDA said it did not expect Beijing to reduce its imports from Brazil, particularly amid escalating trade tensions with the United States.
The department said: "China is unlikely to significantly cut its purchases of Brazilian soybeans, given stable trade relations and the fact that the relationship between Brasília and Beijing is less politically strained than its relationship with Washington."
The European Union accounts for around 14% of Brazil's exports of soybeans and their derivatives, making it another important export market.
Among the other factors supporting Brazilian soybean exports is the relatively weak local currency exchange rate resulting from the economic downturn, according to the "Brazil – Annual Oilseeds and Products Report."
Amid rising global demand for soybeans, Brazil's planted area has expanded by 20% – equivalent to 7.9 million hectares – over the past four years, according to estimates from Brazil's National Supply Company (CONAB).
With the Brazilian government focused on converting degraded pastureland into arable farmland, the USDA expects planted area to continue expanding.
According to CONAB estimates, Brazil's soybean planted area is expected to reach around 56 million hectares by the 2032/2033 season, with production rising to 186.7 million tonnes.
Source: Al Mal Forum