According to the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), Brazil is heading for another record soybean harvest in the 2025-2026 season, with exports expected to reach a new peak driven by demand from China.
The service reported that by the second half of December, soybean planting had been completed on more than 98.5% of the total expected area across most regions.
The report's key forecasts and figures are as follows:
- Planted area and production: Soybean planted area is expected to reach 49.1 million hectares, up 3.1% from last year. This area expansion is expected to push production up to 177 million tonnes, an increase of 3.2% on the 2024-2025 forecast.
- Exports: Total exports are set to reach 113 million tonnes, up 3.7% on the 2024-2025 forecast. A significant share of the growth in export volumes is expected to come from Chinese demand, with shipments to China rising 16.5% year on year in the January to November period.
Oil and biofuel production
Brazil's soybean oil output is estimated at 12.3 million tonnes, up 4.1% on the 2024-2025 forecast. The main driver behind this increase is the rise in the mandatory biodiesel blending requirement from B14 to B15, which took effect in August 2025. There is also a possibility of a further increase in the blending mandate to B16 in March this year.
- Higher biodiesel output is expected to boost domestic demand for soybean oil, which accounts for around 75% of Brazil's biodiesel production.
- According to the FAS, the new mandatory B15 requirement is expected to drive an additional 7 million tonnes of soybean oil to be processed for biodiesel production, a 9% increase compared with soybean oil consumption in this sector in 2024.
Other products and market trends
- Soybean meal: Soybean processing operations will produce 46.1 million tonnes of soybean meal, with more than 52% of it, totalling 24 million tonnes, set to be exported.
- Shipments to Russia: It was previously reported that soybeans had slipped to third place among Brazilian shipments to Russia by year-end. Since the start of the season, South American soybean shipments have fallen by 63%, hitting an all-time low of 150,000 tonnes.
Source: OleoScope
